Saturday, February 5, 2011

Tourism Finance - Technical View

As requested by Kuldeep, providing the technical view of this stock.

Face value Rs.10
04-Feb - Close -> Rs.28.60
Year High is 43.25 and Year Low is 25.00

In the Japanese candlestick chart, it has formed a double top around Rs.41-42. (First top on Nov 11 2010 and second top on Dec 1 2010). The stock is obviously in down trend now, as it is hovering near its year end low. Support levels on the downside is Rs.26.70 and Rs.25.50. Breaking these levels may see the stock going further down.

As per the Fibo, 38.2% retracement from the current downside journey would be Rs.33.8. So, any upside movement in the near term will face resistance at this level.

As per the Moving Averages, Short term trend will be considered up if the price closes above 31 and stays for at least 3 days. On the up side, it faces resistance at 34 and 35 (200D MA) levels. Above this, the intermediate to long term trend would be considered up.

As per the RSI, the stock is in over-sold zone, but not extremely over-sold. 50 Days Average volume of this stock is less than 100,000 shares per day, which is quite low for its value.

Short-term Trade Setup/Plan:
If the price finds support at 25-26 levels, (need to be confirmed by price not breaking this level and closing above it), one can buy with a target of Rs.33 (38.2% Fibo retracement is Rs.33.8).

Intermediate to Long Term Plan:
One can take small position when the price closes above Rs.31 and enhance position when it goes above Rs.35.

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